As Wild NCAA Tournament Continues, Sportsbooks Wary Of Public Dogs

Just a few years ago, the occurrence of big upsets and Cinderellas in the NCAA Tournament guaranteed profitable outcomes for sportsbooks.

Parlays were ruined and future bet tickets were discarded when a higher seed was eliminated prematurely.

According to Nick Bogdanovich, the director of trading for William Hill US Sportsbook, there has been a shift in thinking over the past five years. More public underdogs are emerging, as bettors are now backing high-profile teams or value picks that boast impressive advanced statistical outputs.

“Without a doubt, it was a common practice in the past,” remarked Bogdanovich on Thursday regarding dogs assisting in the household. “However, in recent years, say around five to ten years, it has become crucial to choose the right dogs. This is because there have been significant instances wherein certain public dogs have posed major dilemmas for us.”

Gone are the days when a dog’s victory automatically implied its excellence. Nowadays, our significant choices often revolve around having a preferred option, without relying solely on blind judgment. Ultimately, the outcome depends on the specific circumstances and the choices at hand.

Once again this weekend, Bogdanovich is eagerly anticipating a March Madness lineup where five teams seeded in the double-digits continue to compete.

Based on the statistics, the current NCAA Sweet 16 is the most extraordinary one yet, as the average remaining seed of 5.88 is the highest ever recorded.

Introducing the most unconventional Sweet 16 ever witnessed, where the average seed amazes at 5.88.

The average seed for the Sweet 16 from 1985-2021 is 4.45.

Chalkiest: 2019 (3.09).

Cleveland State, the No. 14 seed, has now achieved something truly remarkable by breaking a record set in 1986. This unexpected and wacky accomplishment has taken the sports world by storm. pic.twitter.com/yNYSn38EqY

John Gasaway tweeted on March 23, 2021.

William Hill did still win, despite some ‘public dogs’ winning

According to Bogdanovich, the book had a stroke of luck as William Hill emerged victorious due to a weekend filled with unexpected outcomes.

“Winning three out of the four days was a great achievement,” he remarked. “However, the return of the tournament holds immense significance. We felt its absence last year, which left a noticeable impact on us. Overall, Week 1 turned out to be quite promising.”

As Bogdanovich and sportsbooks anticipate this weekend’s results, some of the Cinderella stories have transformed into potential setbacks, posing as liabilities until a winning formula is found.

Sister Jean, Loyola-Chicago come up big for William Hill

Once again, the Loyola Ramblers continue to be one of the most captivating narratives this March.

In 2018, Sister Jean and her crew successfully reached the Final Four, and now they are just two victories away from achieving that same accomplishment once again.

According to Bogdanovich, Loyola’s 71-58 victory over top-seeded Illinois on Sunday, propelling them to the Sweet 16, was the most favorable outcome for the book.

He claimed, “Our triumph in that match was the most significant throughout the whole tournament. Illinois residents bet a substantial amount of money, including Moneyline parlays, parlays, and straight bets. It stood out as the largest victory during the initial four days.”

According to PlayIllinois, William Hill was not the only one involved. The data reveals that 89% of handle for DraftKings was placed on Illinois for that game, and both FanDuel and PointsBet were close to reaching that percentage.

However, Bogdanovich noted that William Hill experienced significant first-round losses as No. 13 seed Ohio surprised defending champion Virginia and No. 12 seed UC-Santa Barbara narrowly missed covering the spread in a one-point loss against 5-seed Creighton.

William Hill wary of Syracuse, long Oregon State run

How does this weekend look for sports bettors?

Bogdanovich suggested that William Hill would benefit from positive outcomes in both the Creighton vs. Gonzaga and Villanova vs. Baylor matchups.

Nevertheless, the book would greatly improve if it included popular teams defeating underestimated underdogs like Syracuse, seeded 11th, and Oregon State, ranked No. 12.

According to Bogdanovich, William Hill in Nevada is facing a liability of almost a seven-figure amount if Oregon State wins the entire tournament.

While it is highly improbable for the 12 seed, the Beavers’ progression also presents opportunities for bettors to secure their winnings through hedging.

According to Bogdanovich, even Oral Roberts, a No. 15 seed with 11 points against Arkansas, can be considered a popular underdog on Saturday.

Michigan liability has cooled since start of tournament

Several books had hailed Michigan as the top liability of the tournament before the brackets were announced.

Despite the fact that the Wolverines, who are currently the top seed, have made it to the Sweet 16, their liability has decreased at William Hill.

Bogdanovich mentioned that after the tournament field is finalized, a significant influx of future bets occurs. He stated that we no longer have a significant risk with Michigan, although they were our most concerning liability for a considerable period of time.

In addition, Bogdanovich mentioned that Florida State might become the underdog among the general public in their game against the Wolverines on Sunday. Experienced bettors initially shifted the line from Michigan’s favor by 3 points to 2.5 points.

Bogdanovich anticipates that Sunday’s game will eventually attract equal engagement, and he wouldn’t be opposed to witnessing a victory for Michigan. He also expressed his admiration for Wolverines coach Juwan Howard, revealing himself as a fan.

On Wednesday, FanDuel reported that Michigan had accumulated 18% of the championship outright handle at +700, which remained as their highest potential loss. Similarly, on Thursday, PointsBet still identified Michigan (+700) as their greatest liability for the championship.

Spartans falling in First Four was good for William Hill

William Hill had a significant win when UCLA defeated Michigan State in overtime on the first night of the tournament.

Bogdanovich expressed his surprise at Michigan State University’s defeat, acknowledging that UCLA’s success in winning three games and playing exceptionally well may provide solace to the Michigan State fanbase. He also highlighted the fact that Michigan State did not lose to a weak team, emphasizing that they were not defeated by an underperforming opponent.

William Hill wouldn’t mind splitting weekend results

According to Bogdanovich, the belief that every game typically receives an equal amount of action and the sportsbook profits from the juice is a misconception.

While it would be ideal for the books, in reality, the outcomes vary from night to night, resulting in fluctuating book output.

Bogdanovich stated that the significance of the decision determines its impact. He expressed the preference for addressing major decisions separately, after which they would secure their modest 4 or 5% share and swiftly leave.