Should I Pay for NFL Picks?

Would you consider starting a business selling NFL picks if you possessed the ability to consistently choose winners at a profitable rate? It’s something most people would not do.

If you were already making a significant profit from betting, you wouldn’t require any additional funds. Moreover, you wouldn’t want to compromise your profitability by letting others saturate the market with your winning selections. However, despite this, numerous self-proclaimed experts and touts can be found on the internet and social media, offering supposedly foolproof NFL picks on a weekly basis.

Since 2018, the expansion of legal sports betting throughout the nation has resulted in an increasing number of sportswriters and broadcasters shifting their content towards gambling. As a result, these individuals are now regularly providing free NFL picks throughout the season.

If you possessed valuable NFL picks, it is unlikely that you would be willing to sell them. Furthermore, considering the abundance of NFL “experts” freely sharing their picks, it raises doubts about the worth of the picks available for purchase.

What do you mean “buy” NFL picks?

The NFL promotes the sale of information, typically through specific game picks accompanied by explanations, or game pick packages that include a series of specific game picks with detailed explanations.

Touts have the option of offering subscription services, through which you can pay a weekly, monthly, or annual fee to gain access to all their picks and the reasoning behind them. It’s important to note that when you purchase picks from a tout, you are only acquiring the information, not the actual bets. Ultimately, it’s your decision on how you choose to utilize that information.

To put it differently, purchasing picks from an NFL tout entails acquiring NFL betting advice from an individual who purports to be an NFL expert or possesses beneficial NFL betting information. However, in order to profit from the purchased picks, one must still place bets and rely on them to be successful.

What’s the difference between an NFL tout and an NFL betting expert?

Many individuals who claim to be NFL betting experts in the NFL industry often sell their picks, but there is a distinct difference between these individuals and the true NFL betting experts. Genuine experts, typically working as sportswriters or broadcasters, freely provide their NFL picks without charging for them.

Famous touts

Among the multitude of individuals in the realm of sports betting, there exist countless touts, ranging from those proficient in the field but preferring anonymity, to others actively seeking attention and recognition.

Vegas Dave Oancea, a former professional sports bettor, stands out as one of the most well-known figures. In 2017, he was convicted for supplying Las Vegas sportsbooks with deceitful details, such as using other individuals’ Social Security Numbers. Consequently, he was banned from accessing Nevada sportsbooks.

Oancea asserts that he gained a total of $2.5 million by placing bets on the Kansas City Royals to emerge victorious in the 2015 World Series, and an additional $2.3 million by betting on the Denver Broncos to win the 2016 Super Bowl. Presently serving as a sports betting consultant, Oancea maintains that he has successfully guided over 10,000 satisfied clients to accumulate winnings exceeding $20 million through his expert advice in sports betting.

Steve Fezzik, a renowned tipster, is recognized for his impressive achievements in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, now known as the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest. This contest is widely regarded as the premier NFL handicapping competition globally. In addition to his success in the sports betting realm, Fezzik is also an accomplished Chess Candidate Master and a distinguished member of the Society Of Actuaries.

NFL betting experts in the media

As legal sports betting gains popularity nationwide, there is an increasing number of NFL betting experts in the media generously sharing their free NFL picks.

One of the most renowned individuals in the field is Colin Cowherd, a sports commentator who initially kick-started his profession as a sports director at a television station in Las Vegas. After spending over ten years at ESPN, he currently hosts The Herd with Colin Cowherd on both Fox Sports Radio and Fox Sports 1.

In his segment called the ‘Blazin’ 5′, Cowherd shares his top five NFL picks every Friday during the regular season. In 2018, his picks had a record of 45 wins, 33 losses, and 2 ties, while in 2019, they went 42 wins, 41 losses, and 3 ties.

Matt Bowen, a former NFL player who is now a prominent figure in the media, has established himself as a reputable NFL betting expert. Currently serving as a leading NFL writer and analyst for ESPN, Bowen also co-hosts the NFL Matchup chat show on the network. With an impressive track record, his NFL picks have amassed a total of 849 wins against 480 losses, resulting in an outstanding winning percentage of 63.9%.

Options for NFL betting research

Sports betting has always been a battle where information is the key. In the case of the NFL, you have two options:

• Take the initiative to gather that information through conducting your own research.
• Acquire it at no cost through thorough consumption of the abundant “expert” NFL betting content available today.
• Purchase it from a tout who guarantees to be the exclusive source.

Maybe you lack the time or means to conduct thorough research. It could be that you have doubts about the credibility of NFL betting experts who offer their NFL picks, and their track record doesn’t impress you much. You might find the extensive marketing tactics used by numerous touts on the web, social media, direct messages, TV, and radio quite captivating. Gradually, you may be growing more convinced that achieving the American dream through a fast and lucrative sports betting scheme is within reach.

It is important to remain cautious when something appears overly favorable, as it is likely not genuine. Remember that while NFL betting experts and touts may claim to ensure a profit, very few, if any, can truly guarantee it.

Continue reading to discover the complete and unadulterated truth about purchasing NFL picks.

How about NFL pick services?

NFL pick services can be described as promotional entities that mainly rely on touts. The majority of these services are either managed by touts themselves or hire touts, either individually or in groups, to provide their picks.

Subscription-based NFL pick services offer access to NFL picks, along with the underlying logic behind them, and a range of other NFL betting details. These services typically charge on a weekly, monthly, or seasonal basis.

Are touts exclusive to the NFL?

While a few touts exclusively focus on NFL picks, the majority identify themselves as sports betting experts and provide guidance and selections across a wide range of sports.

Should I consider using an NFL tout/picks?

Deciding between paying for NFL picks or developing your own is a subjective matter.

If you lack the time to conduct thorough research for making your own NFL picks, there is no harm in paying for them, as long as you have all the necessary information.

Before making any payments, ensure you obtain evidence of a tout’s past performance and seek recommendations from individuals you trust. Do not be influenced by touts boasting about their numerous winning streaks or weeks. Instead, request the complete track record and verify its authenticity. Next, carefully analyze the tout’s pricing and calculate the amount you need to wager in order to justify the cost of their picks.

Most professional sports bettors typically have a modest advantage of only 3% or 4%. Even if a tout claims to offer a 5% advantage, which is higher than most professionals, you would probably need to wager 20 times the cost of the pick at typical -110 odds just to reach a breakeven point.

If you’re not placing significant bets, it’s usually not worth paying for picks. It’s more beneficial to follow an NFL expert on TV or radio who has a good track record or spend more time watching games, researching NFL teams, and analyzing the lines and odds.

Are touts licensed?

Apart from the existence of different state departments of consumer affairs or consumer protections, as well as specific laws targeting false advertising, touts have very little to be held accountable for.

The responsibility of overseeing touts who make incredible win rate claims and fail to fulfill promised guarantees falls upon the sports betting community as its watchdog.

In 2018, Nevada legislators were deliberating on a bill aimed at regulating touts. Nevertheless, the Nevada Gaming Control Board argued that current laws were sufficient for consumer protection and that requiring touts to register would inadvertently grant them a sense of undesired legitimacy. Consequently, the state decided against endorsing any touts officially, resulting in the removal of all references to touts from the bill.

What should I look for in a trusted NFL handicapper?

To determine the legitimacy of a tout’s win rate claims, it is essential for them to provide verifiable evidence and trusted references who can confirm their track record. Relying solely on advertisements that boast about recent winning streaks is insufficient. It is crucial to obtain the tout’s complete track record for a comprehensive evaluation.

Make sure you only accept reliable evidence of their selections from the previous two NFL seasons. Don’t accept anything less, such as photoshopped bet slips. Stay vigilant and be cautious.

If a tout fails to demonstrate an indisputable winning track record, they should not be trusted. By starting with the assumption that no tout is trustworthy until they unequivocally prove their status as a consistent winner, you can safeguard yourself from being deceived or swindled.

What claims should I be wary of?

The reality is that professional NFL bettors rely on extremely narrow advantages. The majority of them achieve win rates ranging from 53% to 54%. With the advancement of oddsmakers’ skills in establishing betting lines, uncovering any advantage has become increasingly challenging.

If the NFL claims to offer anything better than the average win rate of most professional sports bettors, it should be viewed with skepticism. It is advisable to demand verifiable evidence from them. If the tout is unwilling or unable to provide such proof, it is best to disengage from the situation.

However, he claimed with certainty that it was guaranteed.

A sure thing does not exist.

When touts and NFL betting experts refer to a pick as a “lock,” it is mainly to display their confidence in it and promote it. However, it is important to note that unless they are assuring a payout for unsuccessful bets, a lock does not ensure a victory.

If they are truthful, it is likely that they experience a similar rate of success when it comes to locks as compared to any other picks. Otherwise, they would solely focus on betting on these locks, wouldn’t they?

How about a tout’s “free” picks or “guaranteed” picks?

A tout may employ complimentary NFL picks as a tactic to entice you into purchasing upcoming picks.

Relying on the accuracy of a single game should not be considered as sufficient evidence that this tout has a successful history of betting on the NFL. Only a proven track record of consistent success in NFL betting can establish their credibility. Feel free to utilize their free picks for your wagers, but even if you experience wins, it is crucial to request the tout to provide verifiable proof of a winning track record before making any purchases.

This applies to all types of guarantees. Regardless of the nature of a guarantee, it cannot serve as conclusive evidence that any individual is a winner.

Is it worth it for casual NFL bettors to buy picks?

If you’re not heavily invested in NFL betting or aiming to sustain a livelihood through it, you likely won’t have a need for NFL picks.

Instead of relying on purchased picks, you might consider conducting your own research and analysis. This approach will save you from the need to place larger bets in order to cover the expenses. It is advisable to stick to your betting system and wager within your financial limits, even if your system simply involves random selections.

If your intention is to become a professional sports bettor, it is crucial to evaluate whether the expense of purchasing NFL picks from a tout is justifiable, or if it would be more beneficial to allocate that money towards actual betting.

In essence, it is not advisable for casual bettors, who only allocate a small portion of their extra money for occasional Sunday bets, to purchase picks. As for more dedicated bettors, while they may contemplate the idea, they will often discover that investing time in research to develop their own picks and NFL betting strategy yields better results.

Regular season vs. playoff picks?

The reduced number of games in the playoffs may make it appear significantly simpler for the touts to make their selections.

Nevertheless, oddsmakers also have a reduced number of games to concentrate on, resulting in significantly more precise betting lines. Touts assert their expertise in discovering advantageous bets, and the reality is that there are simply more chances to accomplish this during the regular season.

Should I pay for Super Bowl picks?

To clarify, we do not support the idea of paying for NFL picks.

Those who assert having exclusive insights often lack evidence, while individuals boasting high success rates are unable to substantiate their claims.

There is a continuous increase in the count of NFL betting experts who work in the media and provide free NFL picks. If you lack the time or desire to make your own NFL picks, you can simply follow the picks made by your preferred experts.

Whether it’s the NFL regular season, NFL Playoffs, or even the Super Bowl, touts and NFL betting experts won’t admit it, but your guess is just as good as theirs.