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The night of the NBA Draft is consistently filled with chaos.
However, an unexpected revelation from ESPN’s NBA Insider Adrian Wojnarowski, referred to as a “Woj-bomb,” added to the already tumultuous nature of the 2024 NBA Draft for both Michigan sports bettors and sportsbooks.
When he hinted that Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr. would be the top pick, oddsmakers quickly adjusted his odds, raising them as high as -10000 at certain sportsbooks.
Instead, Duke’s Paolo Banchero would be the selection for the Orlando Magic.
The NBA Draft and NFL Draft undoubtedly attract the greatest media attention among all sports drafts. Consequently, sportsbooks have a significant financial stake in these events.
The impact on betting markets is significant when influential insiders tweet about the draft, particularly on the day of the event.
Could Thursday’s unexpected shift in the NBA Draft serve as a valuable lesson for the media and sportsbooks on how to approach future drafts?
The ‘Woj Bomb’ that shook up the odds
Adrian Wojnarowski, the NBA’s premier insider, made an early morning declaration outlining his predictions for the top 3 picks in Thursday’s draft.
The tweet had a profound impact on the night’s odds, leading some bookmakers to take down certain draft markets.
This is the tweet shared by Woj:
Please rewrite the following sentence:<br><br>”The cat is sitting on the mat.”
During the entirety of Thursday, Jabari Smith Jr. from Auburn University held the highest chances of being selected as the top pick. Several sources even offered odds as high as -10000 for his selection, while the majority kept him at a minimum of -6000 for extended periods.
According to Playinmichigan, BetMGM stated that the most significant consequence of a tweet from an insider like Wojnarowski is the removal of odds from the board. In line with this, BetMGM temporarily suspended betting options on Thursday until Banchero’s situation was clarified.
“In an email, Christian Cipollini, Sports Trader for BetMGM, expressed that the NBA Draft poses a challenging task for handicapping. He pointed out that rumors and leaks have the potential to generate substantial fluctuations in the betting lines.”
As the evening drew near, Banchero’s position in the No. 1 odds market began to soar rapidly. Woj even mentioned during the ESPN telecast that he had heard Banchero would be the first pick. Surprisingly, the Orlando Magic chose Banchero.
Those who chose to disregard Wojnarowski’s previous tweets may have ended up with a significant financial gain. Additionally, certain sportsbooks that had significant bets placed on Smith emerged victorious.
The timeline of NBA Draft odds chaos
Below is a comprehensive summary of the events that unfolded throughout the day for the sportsbooks.
Morning Woj Bomb
- At 8:41 a.m., Wojnarowski publishes the aforementioned tweet.
- At 9:52 a.m., FanDuel Sportsbook announces new odds, with Smith listed at -6000 and Banchero at +550.
- At 11:14 a.m., CBS Sports CBB Insider Jon Rothstein shares a tweet revealing the updated Top 3 odds from FanDuel. According to the odds, Smith has a -3500 chance of being selected as the No. 1 pick. Holmgren also has the same odds of -3500 to be chosen as the No. 2 pick. On the other hand, Banchero has a -1050 chance of being selected as the No. 3 pick.
- At 12:04 p.m., DraftKings sends a tweet to Wojnarowski, kindly requesting him to refrain from revealing draft picks prematurely, as it hampers our ability to place bets.
Banchero’s climb
As the NBA Draft approached, Banchero began to regain his prominence. FanDuel was among the first to acknowledge his potential, but others soon realized that Smith was not a guaranteed choice for the number one spot.
- At 3:55 p.m., FanDuel Sportsbook modifies its odds, indicating that Smith’s chances of going first are now listed at -280, whereas Banchero’s odds stand at +200. Additionally, FD points out that Smith was previously listed at -10000 earlier today.
- At 7:15 p.m., BetMGM revised its odds, placing Smith at -800 to be chosen as the No. 1 pick. Additionally, Holmgren was listed at -1000 to go No. 2, while Banchero stood at -700 to be selected as the No. 3 pick.
Woj changes course as draft begins
Chaos ensued in the half hour preceding the NBA Draft’s commencement at 8 p.m.
- At 7:40 p.m., Woj made a significant update on Twitter. He revealed that according to sources, Duke’s Paolo Banchero has now joined Auburn’s Jabari Smith as serious contenders for the franchise’s No. 1 overall pick. This unexpected development has the potential to completely disrupt the draft boards at the beginning of the lottery.
- At 7:55 p.m., Wojnarowski confirms via tweet that Banchero has now emerged as the leading candidate to be selected as the number one pick.
- At 7:57 p.m., BetMGM takes to Twitter and posts, “According to Woj this morning, Jabari Smith is undoubtedly the top pick,” accompanied by a playful wink from Kathryn Hahn of WandaVision.
- At 7:59 p.m., Banchero was listed at -200 and Smith at +150 by DraftKings Sportsbook for the No. 1 position.
Big Banchero Bettors
Banchero’s journey to becoming the top draft pick was truly remarkable, extending beyond the dramatic events of Thursday.
On the previous Sunday, Banchero’s odds of being selected as the No. 1 pick at DraftKings Sportsbook were +2000. During that day, a fortunate bettor placed a $2,000 bet on the Duke forward. This wager resulted in a payout of $42,000 on Thursday night.
BetRivers Sportsbook suffered significant losses in the top pick market, with Banchero being responsible for 54.5% of their bets and 43.4% of their total betting volume.
At BetRivers, a total of 18 wagers on Banchero resulted in payouts exceeding $4,000, with four of them exceeding $10,000.
BetMGM comes out strong
BetRivers and other operators may have experienced setbacks due to the confusion, but BetMGM emerged as the apparent winner.
Smith to be selected was the overwhelming favorite among BetMGM bettors as of Thursday morning, accounting for 70.7% of the total handle. This made him the riskiest pick for the sportsbook.
Smith has consistently been a popular choice among bettors ever since the operator published the odds. He started at -105 and rose to -550 before Woj’s tweet.
Will this change how insiders operate?
Previously, the majority of people wouldn’t have been surprised if a prominent insider made a statement in the morning, only to completely change their stance by the time the draft came around.
However, money has a powerful influence.
Thursday’s events provided undeniable proof of the significant influence insiders hold in the odds markets, given the substantial amounts of money being wagered on drafts nationwide.
Are operators, or even the leagues themselves, going to hold these insiders accountable for the information they provide prior to a betting event?
Is it possible for the league to be stricter regarding the information insiders like Wojnarowski or Adam Schefter release on draft day?
It is reasonable to anticipate potential changes following the tumultuous events of Thursday.
Can you rewrite the following statement for me: “I am sorry, but I cannot assist you with that request at this time.”
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