Many Detroit Lions Bettors Didn’t Benefit From Incredible Backdoor Cover Vs. 49ers

Sunday’s late comeback by the Detroit Lions against the San Francisco 49ers, surpassing the predicted outcome, can be seen as a moral victory in a season where actual wins are scarce. For those engaged in Michigan sports betting, it served as an unforeseen and unconventional success.

In a game that surely jolted you from your mid-game slumber, the Lions managed to rally back by scoring an impressive 16 points in under 4 minutes. This remarkable effort transformed a daunting 28-point deficit into a narrower 41-33 loss against San Francisco. Jared Goff showcased his skills in the latter part of the game, while the Lions successfully recovered an onside kick that deflected off George Kittle’s helmet. Additionally, they executed two two-point conversions to further fuel their comeback.

However, for the majority of Lions bettors, it was simply another letdown and loss from a franchise that has become accustomed to disappointing performances on Sundays. (Editor’s note: We previously discussed the Lions’ record against the spread over the past 20 years.)

Detroit Lions only back-door covered for bettors who got in late

We previously discussed the significance of monitoring key numbers when making football bets, prior to the inundation of NFL odds. While 8 may not hold as much importance as 3 or 7 in this scenario, it is evident that even the smallest advantage can be beneficial.

Sunday provided a perfect example of how the person or entity you choose to place your bet with, as well as the timing of your bet, can be even more crucial than the actual selection of who you bet on.

In May, operators began unveiling NFL game lines to satisfy the eager betting enthusiasts.

During that period, the Lions were generally considered a 7.5-point underdog against the 49ers, occasionally dropping to a 7-point spread at certain operators.

The 7.5-point spread remained consistent during training camp and leading up to game week. However, just before the game, there was some significant shift in betting activity, causing the spread to rise to 9.5 points at most sportsbooks. This increase made it the highest opening spread for any Week 1 game.

In summary, the outcome is straightforward: Those who bet on the Lions with a spread of +7 or +7.5 ended up losing. Those who wagered at +8 had a push, while individuals who placed their bets at a higher spread anxiously witnessed a remarkable last-minute cover.

Operator information largely incomplete on when money comes in

In the build-up to football Sundays and throughout the day, sports betting operators disseminate information to reporters and other influencers in the gambling industry as a means to promote their brand names.

Typically, they provide updates on the percentage of activity for both sides of a point spread, moneyline, or total, in addition to the current odds.

Typically, this information is quite valuable and we make an effort to share most of it, provided it is presented in the appropriate context. However, it fails to include a crucial aspect: the specific amount of money received at a particular stage.

Collecting and processing a large amount of information can often be overwhelming and ultimately insignificant. However, in situations like Sunday’s game with the Lions, it was crucial and provided the complete narrative.

After Sunday’s game, we contacted multiple sportsbooks in search of more detailed information, but unfortunately, we were mostly unsuccessful in obtaining the desired insights.

However, a single operator shared a story that is probably the typical experience for most Lions bettors: the majority of them still ended up losing.

BetMGM says most Lions bettors still lost, anyways

BetMGM Sportsbook provided the most transparent information regarding Sunday’s game.

The spokesperson revealed that despite the game closing at 9 points, a staggering 70% of the funds placed on the Lions vs. 49ers spread were concentrated at the 7.5-point mark.

Therefore, the majority of spread bettors on Lions suffered losses.

Earlier today, BetMGM disclosed that a significant 75% of the spread handle was placed on San Francisco. Fortunately, those who bet early on the 49ers with a -7.5 spread emerged victorious.

This is also great news for numerous individuals in Michigan. The operator announced on Sunday that the percentage of bets placed on the 49ers was the highest compared to any other game on the betting board for Michigan bettors. Additionally, the Lions-49ers game was the third most-wagered NFL game of the weekend at the book across the country, encompassing various betting options such as the spread.

The lesson is clear: Lions fans have acquired wisdom throughout the years, regardless of the absence of legal betting.

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Most Lions-49ers spread money was on SF, though that info is also incomplete

Regarding the other operators, we possess some data regarding the overall betting figures, although they did not disclose the timing and amount of money received.

Most of the Lions bets likely resulted in losses across the board, especially considering the line remained stagnant until game week and worsened further after the news of Taylor Decker’s injury late in the week.

• According to a spokesperson, the spread for the game at Caesars Sportsbook initially started at 7.5 but eventually reached 9.5 before the start of the game due to significant betting activity favoring the 49ers. However, even those who bet on the 49ers at the later spread lost, resulting in the sportsbook winning those bets as well.
• The line for San Fran in the DraftKings Sportsbook initially started at -7.5 but eventually closed at 9.5. Unfortunately, there is no information available regarding the betting breakdown. Nevertheless, this spread shift was the most frequent occurrence.
• According to FanDuel Sportsbook, 77% of the spread handle was placed on San Francisco while the remaining 23% was attributed to Detroit.
• The spread action on San Francisco accounted for 79% of the wagers at PointsBet Sportsbook, although there was no additional information provided about the specific breakdown.
• On Sunday morning, an astonishing 96% of spread bets placed at WynnBET Sportsbook favored the 49ers, leaving a mere 4% of bets on Detroit. Since the book had set an 8.5-point line at that moment, the outcome of these bets remains unknown – whether they resulted in wins or losses.

Nick’s Story: A bad beat, blow by blow

You’re likely familiar with the bad beat story, even though it’s just a bunch of numbers.

If you are not aware, here is a glimpse into the Twitter timeline of a Michigan sports fan, capturing a real-time experience of a disappointing defeat.

Introducing Nick Henkel, a delightful individual and a must-follow for all Detroit Pistons fans. He is an NBA podcaster, personality, video creator, and content producer who guarantees an enjoyable experience.

On Sunday morning at 9:05 a.m. EST, Nick, like numerous Michiganders, engaged in some betting activities. He shared a screenshot of a Same Game Parlay bet placed using bonus cash at FanDuel.

We also admire Nick’s brilliant “emotional hedging” tactic: By betting against his team, he cleverly positioned himself to potentially win either with his emotions or financially. Looking back, his tweet containing the phrase “I can literally never lose” will be remembered as pure genius.

The cost of the 4-leg parlay was $10, but if it were to hit, it would yield a significant payout of $791.46. The legs included in the parlay were:

• 49ers -9.5
• D’Andre Swift, touchdown anytime
• T.J. Hockenson surpasses 80 yards in receiving.
• Deebo Samuel, touchdown anytime

You are already aware of the direction this is headed.

It’s hard to witness, and you feel guilty for finding it amusing, but Nick generously provides us with a detailed account of a devastating loss as the minutes pass by, bringing him closer to winning an impressive sum of nearly $800.

Afterwards, the young man’s victory is snatched away by the back-door cover. It is worth noting that Nick did not mention hedging the spread result, a factor to ponder in any last-minute parlay.

Hopefully, we live and acquire wisdom along the way.

If we ensure that it remains enjoyable and entertaining, it is likely that we will return and place another bet in the future.