In the first half of 2021, the emergence and growth of Michigan sports betting stood out as one of the most significant occurrences in the industry.
Given that many states have not yet legalized betting, Michigan sports betting now represents a disproportionately large portion of the national handle.
In general, sportsbooks are mostly hoping for the Detroit and Michigan teams to lose, at least for the time being. As fans in this area are aware, this is often a favorable situation nowadays.
What occurs when a few of these teams ultimately rise from the depths?
Both the Michigan and Michigan State football teams, currently undefeated at 5-0, are ranked at No. 9 and 11 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Their continued success might be challenging the existing system.
When it comes to rooting against Michigan teams, BetMGM Sportsbook is likely to have the most stake in the game, as Jamie Foxx would put it.
BetMGM experienced significant growth during the period when Michigan became the center of attention in the industry.
In 2020, BetMGM focused on securing funds for a significant expansion into the industry, with Michigan being a key target for their next major launch. Their efforts paid off, as BetMGM successfully established itself as one of the top three players in the state alongside DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel MI.
In all states, including here, the book greatly benefits from the homer betting habits, emphasizing the specific impact this has on the book.
Whenever BetMGM provides updates on bet counts for events, you can typically expect a Detroit or Michigan element causing significant challenges for the books.
Some examples of this include taking a gamble on the Detroit Tigers winning the World Series or pitcher Casey Mize being named Rookie of the Year. Another example would be placing a bet on former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford securing the MVP title in his inaugural season with the Los Angeles Rams.
While it’s great to assume that those things won’t occur, what if one actually did?
Michigan, Michigan State living up to large liability
According to data specialist John Ewing, BetMGM is facing a significant financial risk this season due to the Spartans and Wolverines, who are the main contenders for the national championship. Ewing revealed to Playinmichigan that BetMGM has a liability of over one million dollars for either team winning.
As the number of wins keeps increasing, the betting activity has intensified. Prior to the start of the season, Michigan accounted for only 3.3% of the total national championship handle in NCAA football betting. However, this week their percentage rose to 3.8%, placing them seventh among all teams in terms of betting popularity nationwide.
The national title bet on by Michigan State, which initially accounted for only 0.3% of the total handle, has now increased to 1.1%. This surge is primarily due to the higher betting activity from residents of Michigan, placing the team at the 15th position among all teams.
Despite the success of the local teams, the odds for them to win remain consistently high, contributing to the increase.
The dominance of Alabama and Georgia in the college football world remains undisputed, as they continuously raise the stakes for all other teams.
However, it’s common knowledge that the college football landscape can undergo significant shifts on a weekly basis.
According to BetMGM, Michigan’s 38-17 victory over Wisconsin was the eighth most bet on college football game this season, further highlighting the local support for the team.
In the meantime, Michigan State experienced two victories that came close to breaking into the top 10. Their impressive 38-17 defeat of Miami (Fla.) ranked as the 11th most bet-on game, and their exciting 23-20 overtime win against Nebraska secured the 12th spot.
The recent successes of local teams have caused a decrease in odds prices: Caesars Sportsbook initially had Michigan at 25-1 odds to win the Big Ten and 100-1 odds to win the national championship before the season began. Now, the odds have improved to 6-1 and 40-1 respectively. Similarly, Michigan State’s odds have improved from 100-1 to 20-1 for the Big Ten title and from 300-1 to 100-1 for the national championship.
Michigan State more popular of a bet at WynnBET
Despite Michigan’s traditional status as a public team, WynnBET Sportsbook has observed an increased amount of betting activity on the Spartans this season.
Matt Lindeman, senior lead trader at WynnBET, expressed his surprise as he noted that there was a greater early season interest in Michigan State compared to Michigan. The perception of the Michigan program had changed due to a series of disappointing seasons in Ann Arbor. As a result, Michigan’s win total for the season was set at 7.5, which was considerably lower than previous years. Interestingly, the Wolverines are now exceeding preseason expectations, which is quite rare during the Jim Harbaugh era.
According to Lindeman, there was significant betting activity from expert bettors on MSU’s victory over Northwestern, and a considerable number of people supported MSU during their game against Miami. However, due to Michigan’s consistent status as a strong favorite in three out of their five games, bettors have been hesitant to wager on them with such a large point spread.
However, Lindeman mentioned that WynnBET might still face consequences as the season progresses.
He mentioned that Michigan’s most significant games are still on the horizon. If the Wolverines successfully steer clear of unexpected losses in the upcoming three weeks, there should be a surge in interest and bets placed on their games in November.
Michigan will be playing against MSU on October 30th, followed by a challenging series of matches in November against Indiana, the fourth-ranked Penn State, Maryland, and the seventh-ranked Ohio State.
PointsBet’s local liabilities not quite as significant
You can find a significant amount of NCAA football betting activity at PointsBet Sportsbook for both Michigan and Michigan State.
PointsBet has identified Michigan State as the bookmaker’s primary risk in terms of winning the Big Ten championship, with Michigan ranking third in terms of liability.
Second place goes to Iowa, which is ranked third and is also an active location for PointsBet.
Michigan’s dominant victory over Wisconsin ranked among the top 20 games this season in terms of overall handle. Similarly, Michigan State’s game against Miami was in the top 30.
Although PointsBet’s liabilities are not on the same level as BetMGM’s, it is important to note that PointsBet is currently handling much lower volumes in Michigan. As of August, the Australian bookmaker had received $72.4 million in online sports bets, whereas BetMGM had accumulated $434.4 million.
According to a spokesperson from PointsBet, the book considers the Big Ten conference as a potential risk, especially since it operates in states like Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, and Iowa, where the Big Ten has a presence.
According to trading content analyst Mike Korn, the Big Ten conference boasts a plethora of talent this year, featuring prominent teams such as Penn State, Iowa, and Ohio State. However, Korn believes that Michigan and Michigan State have the potential to create a significant impact as the season progresses.
Michigan’s national footprint adding to sportsbooks’ woes
The impact extends beyond Michigan.
FanDuel, the leading authority in sports betting nationwide, is facing a substantial risk with regard to a potential Michigan national championship.
However, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish represent the biggest liability due to their long shot odds and potentially even more loyal fanbase.
If you are a supporter of sportsbooks, the recent loss of the Fighting Irish at home to Cincinnati seems to be in your favor. However, the bets placed on Michigan are still performing well, making it a significant liability for FanDuel. Surprisingly, despite being ranked 10th in terms of national championship handle (3%), Michigan bets are proving to be quite successful.
As additional states embrace sports betting for NCAA football and various events, the impact of Michigan on the overall market will diminish.
During this specific period, the teams led by Mel Tucker and Jim Harbaugh have the potential to greatly disrupt the predictions of sportsbooks.
After the showdown in East Lansing on October 30, Michigan sportsbooks, especially BetMGM, will likely be more satisfied knowing that at least one of these teams will have a loss on their record.
